HiON · FranDev · Forecasting & pacing

Will we hit the number?

Weekly + monthly — Jim & Joe open this before investor meetings. Will uses the sliders to plan reallocations.

Synthesized · Claude narrative
Confidence · Mixed

At current pace you'll close 8 of 10 quarterly goal. Forecast accuracy is running 73% over the trailing 5 months — bands are credible. Closing the gap to 10 needs +2 signed; the math says either +$2K/week to LinkedIn AND +5pp on SQL conversion, OR a 14-day cycle shortening on the 8 currently-in-DD-or-later candidates. The scenario sliders below let you stress-test combinations live. Capacity hits amber at week 6 — load is right at the team's bandwidth without the FDD-handoff buffer.

01Goal pacing
Monthly, quarterly, annual. Color shows on-pace / behind / far behind.
This month
actual 3 · projecting 3 · goal 3
This quarter · QTD· 6/13 weeks elapsed
actual 4 · projecting 9 · goal 10
Annual· extrapolated
actual 4 · projecting 36 · goal 40
02Weighted pipeline forecast
Low / expected / high band, plus realized signed deals (green dots) for trailing weeks. Credibility = how well realized fell inside band historically.
Low–high range
Expected
Realized
03Forecast accuracy
Meta-metric. How often did the weighted forecast land within ±20% of actual signed deals?
Jan
expected 2actual 2100%
Feb
expected 2.5actual 140%
Mar
expected 3actual 3100%
Apr
expected 3.5actual 486%
May
expected 3actual 267%
Trailing 5-month accuracy
78%

Bands above are credible — interpret confidently.

04Scenario modeling
Move the sliders. The projection updates live. Confidence downgrades when any slider exceeds historical variance.
$0/wk

Add or subtract weekly ad spend

0pp

Change in percentage points off baseline 28%

0pp

Change off baseline 40%

0d

Days shorter (−) or longer (+)

Projection
8
vs. 8 baseline
Confidence · High0 vs baseline

Leave inputs unchanged, projected end-of-quarter signed deals: 8 (vs. 8 baseline, vs. 10 goal). Confidence: High.

05Capacity planning
Weekly hours required by stage workload vs. team capacity (~30h/wk for candidate ops). Red weeks = service quality slips.
W1
72h / 30h
W2
66h / 30h
W3
61h / 30h
W4
56h / 30h
W5
52h / 30h
W6
47h / 30h
W7
44h / 30h
W8
40h / 30h
W9
37h / 30h
W10
34h / 30h
W11
31h / 30h
W12
29h / 30h